Le Mars, Iowa · Sunday, March 21, 2010
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Thanks for nothing, Phil

Wednesday, February 3, 2010
With great fanfare, members of the Inner Circle of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club roused the hibernating Punxsutawney Phil yesterday so he could make his annual weather prediction.

Phil saw his shadow, which means that there will be six more weeks of winter. February 2 is also the Christian holiday of Candlemas. Tradition holds that if it is sunny and bright winter will last for six more weeks.

Yes, six more weeks.

The winter has been long and arduous, the likes of which we have not seen in many years. It is somehow fitting that we should be saddled with six more weeks of the same. Why let the suffering end early?

Perhaps we will get all of the bad weather out of the way in the first quarter of the year.

But there are some glimmers of hope. Punxsutawney Phil isn't always correct. According to Storm Fax Weather Almanac he is accurate 39% of the time. 98 times he has seen his shadow, 15 times he has not seen his shadow and 9 times there was no record. It is said that it is practically impossible to have an early spring. Therefore every time Phil returns to his burrow, he is correct. On the times when Phil decides he is not going back in the burrow, then he is wrong.

A 39% accuracy rate is nothing to brag about.

The traditions surrounding February 2 and weather predictions have been around a long time. The use of a groundhog is based on a German tradition of predicting the course of winter by whether or not a hibernating animal - usually a bear or a badger - sees its shadow.

In some Christian traditions, Candlemas celebrates the day when the infant Jesus was presented at the Temple and is marked in the Roman Catholic Church by the blessing of candles.

As old English song also holds:

If Candlemas be fair and bright,

Come winter, have another flight;

If Candlemas bring clouds and rain,

Go winter, and come not again.

We wouldn't recommend putting the shovels away just yet. The weather forecast is calling for snow nearly every day for the rest of the week.