Winter predictions: Plenty of snow, ice ahead

(Sentinel photo by Magdalene Landegent) A crystal layer coats trees after last week's ice storm swept through Iowa, leaving many people without power. This week started up with another winter whopper -- winds gusting up to 40 mph and blowing snow, closing schools for the day. There's plenty more winter to come, forecasters say. [Click to enlarge]

Some say in ice..."

Le Mars readers of Robert Frost's famous poem might lean toward the latter with the latest bout of freezing rain, ice and blowing snow glazing the region.

(Sentinel photo by Magdalene Landegent) Trees at Willow Creek Golf Course in Le Mars catch the light with a layer of ice on the branches. They also made quite a racket when the wind picked up. Winter is here to stay, at least for another month or two. [Click to enlarge]

The predictions for February and March weather seem to pile on more evidence.

That's according to both the National Weather Service and the Old Farmer's Almanac, who agree on one thing at least: winter isn't over yet.

Weatherman's words

"February is usually one of our snowier months in this part of the country," said Greg Harmon, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in Sioux Falls.

Rumors have been flying of a whopping February blizzard or two, but Harmon isn't predicting gigantic amounts of snow for the month.

"We'll probably see a normal amount of precipitation, but it might be warm enough that it will be rain, or like the system moving through over the weekend, freezing rain," he said.

March might be snowier since lower temperatures are predicted, he said.

Almanac agrees

Janice Stillman, editor of the Old Farmer's Almanac, said the annual reference has a similar outlook.

The Almanac predicts snow or rain every week in February.

"I'm seeing snow showers mid-month and rain to snow almost any time in February," Stillman said.

There may be hope -- the Almanac predicted the winter's biggest snowstorms in mid-December and early-to-mid January.

"How are we doing so far?" Stillman laughed, recalling the two blizzards that struck northwest Iowa in those periods.

"We did predict from the outset that the winter would be colder than normal, primarily due to persistent cold from mid-February to mid-March," she added. "February we expect to be about 3 degrees below normal and then March even colder, about 8 degrees below normal. It just doesn't seem to give up."

Science behind the predictions

Much of the cold this winter, the Almanac editor said, has been due to arctic winds blowing down from the north pole.

"The arctic oscillation -- typically fairly tight winds that circulate around the north pole -- occasionally run from tight to loose and when they're loose they just sort of roll down through any open valleys," Stillman said.

This winter, that "valley" has been everything east of the Rocky Mountains.

"The winds just blow right on down across the continent and have ended up as far south as mid-Florida," she said. "That's been a large part of the cold period and may well continue."

According to Harmon at the National Weather Service, those arctic winds interrupted an El Niņo phase, which usually brings a warmer-than-usual winter to the Midwest.

He said it looks like the El Niņo process is going to re-establish itself, so he's predicting February will bring normal or warmer-than-normal temperatures to northwest Iowa and near normal precipitation, too.

He concurs with the Old Farmer's Almanac in that temperatures in March will be cooler than normal.

Stillman said the Almanac, touted as 80 percent accurate, bases predictions on three scientific disciplines: solar science (the study of the activity on the sun), climatology (the study of prevailing conditions over decades and centuries) and meteorology (the study of the atmosphere).

The Almanac's use of solar science -- watching magnetic storms or sunspots on the surface of the sun -- in their predictions is unique.

Robert B. Thomas, founding editor of the Old Farmer's Almanac in 1972, believed in the sunspot activity and its influence on earth's atmosphere, climate and weather, Stillman explained.

"Lately it's been a very quiet period, which means there haven't been very many sunspots for a couple of years," she said

The lack of activity on the sun indicates a cooler-than-normal period in the earth's atmosphere, Stillman explained.

It's gotta thaw sometime

Is there any good news for spring?

"April and May will be much warmer than normal with below normal precipitation," Stillman predicted. "It looks to be a promising growing season and gardening season."

Summer, she said, looks to be cooler and rainier than normal, despite hot spells throughout July and early and mid-August.

Still, it's fairly early in the winter, Stillman said.

"We've go a couple more months to go," she said. "We hate to be the bearer of bad news, but we do try to give people a little bit of a heads up."

It's been a tough winter for everybody, she said.

"On the one hand, you can figure that no matter what the weather is, the only perfect climate is in bed," Stillman laughed. "But after all, this is winter."

In other words, keep your boots and ice choppers out.