MLB Draft the ultimate crapshoot

Call the NFL and NBA drafts a crapshoot if you wish, but in reality, nothing trumps the Major League Baseball draft - in either unpredictability or overused gambling clichés.

Mariners draftee and No. 2 overall pick Dustin Ackley of North Carolina set the College World Series career hits record last week in Omaha. He's supposedly a five-tool, can't-miss talent - who, incidentally, is represented by Scott Boras.

He's been called "The Next Grady Sizemore," but he could just as easily become the next B.J. Garbe (Who you ask? Exactly, I say).

But for all the Justin Uptons (No. 1 overall in 2005) there are the Todd Van Poppels (No. 14 overall in 1990). For the occasional owner's daughter taken in the final round, there is the occasional Mike Piazza (Round 62 in 1988 - No. 1390 overall).

If you've read "Moneyball," you know that Lenny Dykstra really had no business in the MLB and Billy Beane had no business not being there. From what I understand, playing at that level requires more than talent - it takes a certain mindset and mental toughness that some guys - no matter talented - just do not possess.

What I find interesting is that even now, Dustin Ackley is not exactly a household name. Sure, he's known among more-than-casual baseball fans, but if he never makes it to The Show - heck, if he doesn't become an All-Star, he'll only be remembered by Mariners fans as "That guy we threw $30 million at who flopped."

Contrast that with Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer, Shawn Bradley or Sam Bowie. All of those players were household names before they were drafted and are still recognized by casual fans today - if for no other reason than they headline "Biggest Busts in NFL/NBA History" lists.

But when your draft only lasts two rounds (the NBA) or seven (the NFL), I guess that is bound to happen. Thanks to baseball's 50-round draft, there will always be can't-misses who we never hear about and never-will-be's who become everyday starters.

Hank Krause, a San Diego Padres scout who moonlights as a sports reporter for the Akron Hometowner, told me that the talent level drops off significantly after the 10th round or so. Still, I can only imagine how thrilling it would be to have your name called in any round.

In honor of summer weather finally arriving and the recently completed MLB draft, I would like to take a look back at some of the local baseball players who have been drafted and see how far they made it.

The most famous baseball player I can think of from Iowa would have to be Bob Feller (Van Meter), a Hall-of-Fame pitcher for the Indians. And from what I've read, he was the original "Nasty Boy," far before Randy Myers, Norm-Norm Charlton and Rob Dibble of the 1990 Cincinnati Reds laid claim to the nickname.

There is Kory De Haan from Pella Christian (that's for you, Bethany) who played for Morningside and made his way to the Padres in 2000. And there is Jeff Clement at Class AAA Tacoma by way of USC and Marshalltown High.

But what about more local products?

According to baseball-reference.com (the most authoritative source I could find), Westmar had four selections during its existence as a college - and Gehlen baseball coach Marty Kurth was not one of them.

None went higher than the 33rd round and none made it to the Major Leagues. Third baseman Robert Vasquez was the final selection, a 35th round pick by the Cardinals in 1997.

Morningside College has had 12 selected and two - De Haan and Paul Splittorff - made it to "The Show." Buena Vista has had 11 drafted and two - Dan Monzon and Larry Biittner -that made the majors. Dordt, Northwestern and Briar Cliff are still waiting for that first one.

Washington High School in Cherokee has had a couple of draftees, including 2009 graduate Matt Koch (Boston, 37th round). Rock Valley, Sioux Center, Bishop Heelan and Spalding Catholic have each had at least one player drafted. As near as I can tell, no Plymouth County athlete has been selected in the Major League Baseball draft out of high school.

But thanks to my trip to the Plymouth County Museum on Friday, I learned about the existence of John Niggeling, a Remsen St. Mary's grad who debuted as a pitcher with the Boston Bees in 1938. He also pitched for the St. Louis Browns, the Washington Senators and the Boston Braves.

So how do scouts go about recommending players?

Krause was very specific about that. He said that if the player's mother and girlfriend are good-looking, that player goes to the top of the list.

I guess all that time driving from Winner, S.D., to Dubuque and back gives scouts the chance to realize what's really important in life.